Former President Donald Trump is set to attend a fundraiser in St. Paul on Friday night as Republicans hope to flip traditionally Democratic Minnesota in November.
Trump will attend the Lincoln Reagan Dinner, a major Republican fundraising event in Minnesota, at about 5 p.m. local time along with GOP House Majority Whip Representative Tom Emmer. State GOP Chair David Hann has said Republicans are "thrilled" to have Trump, the party's presumptive presidential nominee, appear in the state that may be contested in the November presidential election.
Minnesota has emerged as a potential target for the Trump campaign. Chris LaCivita, one of Trump's senior 2024 presidential campaign advisers, told NBC News this month that he believes the Trump campaign has "a real, real opportunity in expanding the map" in Minnesota.
Republicans have not had great luck in Minnesota in recent presidential elections, as the North Star State has two Democratic senators, Amy Klobuchar and Tina Smith, and a Democratic Governor, Tim Walz.
It has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1972, when Richard Nixon won nearly every state, sans Massachusetts and the District of Columbia. Even in 2016, when Trump flipped most other midwestern states, Minnesota still narrowly backed Hillary Clinton.
However, independent polling suggests the 2024 presidential election could be close in Minnesota.
A SurveyUSA poll, sponsored by Minnesota news stations KSTP-TV, KAAL-TV and WDIO-DT, found Biden with a two-point lead over Trump. In that survey, 44 percent of respondents said they plan to vote for Biden, while 42 percent said they will vote for Trump.
The poll was conducted from May 8 to 11 among 625 likely voters, with a credibility interval of 4.3 percentage points.
A Florida Atlantic University/Mainstream Research poll from March found Biden with a larger lead of 7 points, 46-39. It polled 125 likely voters from February 29 to March 3 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 1.7 percentage points.
One poll released this year found Trump leading in the state, though the survey was sponsored by his campaign. The McLaughlin & Associates poll, which surveyed 600 voters from April 29 to May 1, found Trump leading 49-46.
Newsweek reached out to the Biden and Trump campaigns for comment via email.
The Cook Political Report, which monitors elections across the U.S., classifies the presidential election in Minnesota as "likely Democratic," meaning it is not considered competitive but has "the potential to become engaged."
Biden won Minnesota by 7.1 percentage points in 2020 after Clinton won by 1.5 points in 2016.
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Andrew Stanton is a Newsweek weekend reporter based in Maine. His role is reporting on U.S. politics and social issues. ... Read more
